Upstart Q1 guidance conservative & beat coming again

Upstart Q4 revenue was $305mio and their Q1 revenue guidance mid-point is $300mio.

The reason given for flat sequential revenue guidance is Q1 seasonal fall in consumer loans on tax refunds.

From earnings call:

It is true that US consumer loan outstanding falls through Q1 seasonally. Average consumer loans outstanding is typically equal in Q4 and the following Q1.

But Upstarts guidance assumes no market share gains in Q1. That assumption is conservative. Website traffic data show continued market share gains for Upstart in Q1. Upstart website traffic rank has improved relative to competition consistently in Jan till mid Feb. This bodes well for Upstart beating their Q1 guidance easily.