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MacroValue 2021 Report

MacroValue
Dec 31, 2021
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MacroValue 2021 Report

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2021 has been my best year in a while with return of +83% (YTD as of 30 Dec).

Top 5 contributors:

Mall REITS Basket (WPG, MAC, RVI) +48%

FB +22%

QDEL +21%

CXW +14%

XRX +8%

Only 2 detractors:

PAYS -21%

VIAC -18%

I could feel my style (value + catalyst) performing after few years of struggle. I believe this will continue in 2022 as the world continues to reopen.

I will be entering 2022 with the following positions:

1) UPST – this is the only high growth stock I could get comfortable with the valuation post sell off. UPST core personal loans business continues to grow fast. UPST has also started originating auto loans (much bigger TAM compared to personal loans) and looking at low quantum loans. These provide runway for high growth to continue in medium term.

2)ZIM – ZIM trades too cheap at 2x trailing PE. This is a play on container freight rates remaining high in H1 2022 on zero covid policies in certain regions meeting Omicron.

3)VIAC – VIAC was a detractor in 2021 despite significant progress in steaming with Paramount+ and PlutoTV. YTD VIAC took market share from larger streamers & this should continue in Q4 & 2022. Q4 was Paramount+’s biggest content quarter yet. 2022 will see Paramount+ in higher ARPU markets in Europe. VIAC also has strong pipeline of movies for 2022 in TopGun & Mission Impossible. VIAC looks to have suffered from tax related selling in Dec which might quickly reverse in Q1.

4)FNKO – thesis below

MacroValue’s Newsletter
Funko Inc
Funko is a toy maker with ~80% of revenue coming from its POP! product. POP!s are collectible figures of popular culture characters. They are seen frequently in toy sections of mass (Walmart, Target) or speciality retail (GameStop) shops. Other 20% of revenue comes from newer business lines shown below…
Read more
2 years ago · MacroValue

5)AXL – thesis below

MacroValue’s Newsletter
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings $AXL
AXL is a global Tier 1 supplier to the automotive industry. AXL manufactures, engineers, and designs axles, driveshafts, and transmission shafts, mainly for light trucks and SUVs, but also for cars and crossover vehicles. The Tier 1 supplier gets more than 35% of its business from GM. Other customers include Ford, Mercedes-AMG and Geely Auto Group. AXL …
Read more
2 years ago · MacroValue

Happy trading and all the best for 2022.

MacroValue

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MacroValue 2021 Report

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Credit Agreement Capital
Writes Market Musings
Dec 31, 2021

congrats on a great year. Think 2022 could be the year of Viacom

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