MacroValue 2021 Report
2021 has been my best year in a while with return of +83% (YTD as of 30 Dec).
Top 5 contributors:
Mall REITS Basket (WPG, MAC, RVI) +48%
FB +22%
QDEL +21%
CXW +14%
XRX +8%
Only 2 detractors:
PAYS -21%
VIAC -18%
I could feel my style (value + catalyst) performing after few years of struggle. I believe this will continue in 2022 as the world continues to reopen.
I will be entering 2022 with the following positions:
1) UPST – this is the only high growth stock I could get comfortable with the valuation post sell off. UPST core personal loans business continues to grow fast. UPST has also started originating auto loans (much bigger TAM compared to personal loans) and looking at low quantum loans. These provide runway for high growth to continue in medium term.
2)ZIM – ZIM trades too cheap at 2x trailing PE. This is a play on container freight rates remaining high in H1 2022 on zero covid policies in certain regions meeting Omicron.
3)VIAC – VIAC was a detractor in 2021 despite significant progress in steaming with Paramount+ and PlutoTV. YTD VIAC took market share from larger streamers & this should continue in Q4 & 2022. Q4 was Paramount+’s biggest content quarter yet. 2022 will see Paramount+ in higher ARPU markets in Europe. VIAC also has strong pipeline of movies for 2022 in TopGun & Mission Impossible. VIAC looks to have suffered from tax related selling in Dec which might quickly reverse in Q1.
4)FNKO – thesis below
5)AXL – thesis below
Happy trading and all the best for 2022.
MacroValue
congrats on a great year. Think 2022 could be the year of Viacom