I am using a very simplified model here
Revenue = DAU X Impressions per DAU X CPM
I used the same model for Q4 2020 earlier, which can be found at https://macrovalue.substack.com/p/fb-q4-revenue-growth-to-be-50-yoy
1)Q1 DAU
Q4 2020 DAU actual growth was +11.3% YOY
Q1 2021 DAU growth assumption at +10% YOY
2)Q1 CPM
CPM data is from Gupta Media which can be found here
https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/9b7783e4-7b55-4840-93bc-3c9469f519c6/page/2UkNB
As per Gupta Media, FB Q1 2021 CPM was +63% YOY.
3) Impressions per DAU
Revenue growth = DAU growth X Impressions per DAU growth X CPM growth
Implied Impression per DAU growth from actual DAU and CPM growth:
Assumption Q1 2021 impressions per DAU growth = 0.85
4) Q1 Revenue Growth
Q1 Revenue growth = 1.10 (DAU growth) x 0.85 (Impressions per DAU growth) X 1.63 (CPM growth)
=1.52 or +52% yoy
5) Massive beat looks likely
+52% Q1 2021 revenue model growth vs current estimate of 33%.
Footnote:
In my Q4 model, I assumed Impression per DAU growth flat vs Q3. This proved to be aggressive. Here for Q1 2021, I have addressed it.